John Heckler

Macro Econ 

Kassens 

12/10/15 

The unemployment rates and statistics on the labor force participation rates from Oct. 2015 to Nov. 2015, show several signs that there will continue to be similar trends in the up coming months. The Information I saw on the unemployment rates for specific groups and as a whole showed positive signs that there was no sign of any issues that could arise. With an overall decline in the unemployment rate of .8 and most of the groups not dropping or falling is a good sign. I also looked at why this is true. The number of people that loose their jobs dropped dramatically from October to November. This is a great sign and i hope it will continue to drop. Also with part time employments and specific jobs some people may be employed but not for too long. The statistics on how long people are out of work are showing positive trends as well that I predict will continue to drop. 

The overall unemployment rate didn't change from October to November, but it did show signs of eventually dropping. Currently it is still at 0.5, but the specific groups are showing a drop in unemployment rate. Knowing that all the groups average change from October to November in unemployment rate was -0.8 I can eventually see that dropping the overall unemployment rate in a matter of months. The trends from earlier months suggested the same concept. 

The employment population ratio didn't change either in the month, it stayed at 59.3. This statistic doesn't show much sign of significant change in the up coming months, only because it has only change 0.1 since last year. This is because the scale is so large it will take a serious shift in employment population to make any real significance. 

The civilian labor force is showing positive signs for the near future. In the last month it rose 273, from 157,028 - 157,301. I can tell that this will only continue to rise because the stats from those not in the labor force are continuing to drop and labor force has been consistently rising. Those not in the labor force dropped 67 in just the past month and down from 92,44 - 94,446 in just one year. This is definitely the most consistent statistic and gives me the most confidence for the up coming months. 

Because the reasons for unemployment have shifted from mainly job losers to more job leavers and reentrants and new entrants, I can infer that all the positive data from this article will not be temporary. The Job losers dropped 71 since October and has dropped from 4480 to 3894 in just one year. This is amerceable statistic and it warms my heart to see it. It is always nice to see your country do well.