Employment Situation 2015

With the 2015 holiday season parading all throughout the retail world, it is important to keep a close eye on the current trends and patterns in our economic system.  Besides the continuous fluctuation of supply and demand of goods and services, the person that is behind the retail counter or the person that is working on your car or teaching your child is also important to acknowledge in well-rounded predictions about the future trends of the economy.  As production requires working time and human capital, firms and other organizations pay people, providing them with a key component of their income.  The need of production typically intensifies around the holiday season so it is important to be inclusive of employment growth around this time of the year.

Employment growth depends on three factors: population growth, the extent to which the population participates in the labor force, and the extent to which the labor force is employed (Mankiw, 2004).  According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, “the civilian labor force participation rate, at 62.5 percent, changed little in November. The employment-population ratio was unchanged at 59.3 percent and has shown little movement since October 2014 (“Employment Situation Summary” 2015).”  This reflects an expansion in the labor force as more Americans began searching for jobs (“Employment Situation Summary” 2015).”  Jason Furman the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers claims that the, “private-sector employment rose by 197,000 jobs in November (“The Employment Situation in November” 2015).  In result, the economy created 8.1 million jobs over the past thirty-six months, the fastest pace since 2000.  There is a sense of optimism in Furman’s statements when he also claimed that in November the, “unemployment rate held at its lowest level since April 2008 and labor force participation ticked up. We have added more jobs over the past three years than in any three-year period since 2000, and wages are continuing to rise (“The Employment Situation in November” 2015).”  While the Bureau of Labor Statistic resonates with the Furman’s claims in a founding that the number of persons employed part time for economic reasons increased by 319,000 to 6.1 million in November (“Employment Situation Summary” 2015).”     

Another growing number that is occurring the realm of employment is the retail trade.  According to the Bureau, the trend of retail trade continued to grow and has increased by 284,000 over the year.  Particularly in the month of November, job gains occurred in areas such as, “merchandise stores (+12,000) and motor vehicle and parts dealers (+9,000) (“Employment Situation Summary” 2015).”  In addition to the growing market of jobs, the average hourly earnings for all private-sector workers rose 2.3 percent over the past twelve months (“The Employment Situation in November” 2015).  In result, there has been an increase in strong pace of employment growth over the past year. While part time employment has increased from 5,767 of October 2015 to 6,086 in November 2016 alone (“Employment Situation Summary” 2015).  The rise in part-time jobs is also explicable due the fact of seasonal change and surge of business during the holidays. 

So what does this all mean?  Since the employment rate is comprised of various factors, we can take a look at the labor force participation rate to start off.  Perhaps there has been an increase in the American population therefore, creating a wider pool of job markets.  Another possibility is the influence of seasonal activity such as the holidays. More people are looking for some extra money for the holidays therefore, returning or applying into the labor force. This trend can be strongly recognized in the months of December and January when young adults return home from school for their winter break.  A lot of them during the month-long break pick up a temporarily job, typically in retail.  Another component that needs to be recognized is the high-intensified season of production. Since Black Friday deals and other promotional holiday sales are currently taking place, retail stores and website are in need for more capita in order to produce their goods and services to meet the demands of the consumers.  It will be interesting to see how the seasonal adjustments affect the headline number, and how online and in-store sales affect the seasonal adjustments. 

“The Employment Situation in November.” The White House. The White House, Nov. 2015. Retrieved from https://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2015/12/04/employment-situation-november

“Employment Situation Summary.” U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Nov. 2015. Retrieved from http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Mankiw, N. Gregory. Principles of Macroeconomics. Mason, OH: Thomson/South-Western, 2004. Print.

“November Jobs Report: Everything You Need to Know.” MoneyBeat 2015. Retrieved from http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/12/04/november-jobs-report-everything-you-need-to-know-2/