Current Analysis of Three Labor Statistics

Patrick Daum

Blog Post #2

Current Analysis of Three Labor Statistics

When analyzing the labor market there are many different sources of information and statistics that can cloud the economic picture. Three major statistics that can be used to understand the labor market are the unemployment rate, employment-population ratio and the labor force participation rate. These statistics when applied using accurate sources such as The Bureau of Labor Statistics can open up a plethora of practical uses. Most simply though, past trends can be analyzed to make predictions about what can be expected to happen in the future.

The first step to analyzing and using information from the labor market statistics is to fully define the key terms. Unemployment rate is one of the most commonly used statistics when discussing the state of the labor market. It is simply measured as the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed. Not included in the labor force are workers who have discontinued the job search. (Mankiw, 2011). It is not a flawless indicator by itself but it can be very helpful. The employment-population ratio is in a way, the opposite of the unemployment rate. The employment-population ratio shows what percentage of the population employed persons make up. Its benefits as a statistic are that it is not affected by slightly vague terms such as discouraged worker (“Employment-Population Ratio”, 2014). The labor force participation rate is similar to the employment-population ratio in that it shows what percentage of the population is either working or unemployed (“Employment-Population Ratio”, 2014). The ‘unemployed’ part of the labor force participation rate is integrating the same components used to qualify to be a part of the unemployment rate. These three statistics can paint a clear picture for economists when trying to understand the labor market.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, unemployment has not fluctuated much, remaining at a respectable 6.7 percent. It has held steady at approximately 6.7 percent since the beginning of 2014. This is encouraging because as recently as March of 2012 the United States experienced unemployment rates reaching over 8 percent. Since then the economy has put people back to work in some capacity and therefore unemployment rate has been steadily decreasing.  Not only is unemployment rate decreasing, but the average hourly wage has risen by nearly half a dollar over the past calendar year (The Employment Situation, 2014). There has been little change across different demographics. One could reasonably project the unemployment ratio to remain steady or even decline slightly in the future. The employment-population ratio has also experienced little fluctuation over the past months (The Employment Situation, 2014). This trend indicates that even though the unemployment rate is slowly going down, as a whole our population isn’t experiencing anything close to a boom in employment numbers. 58.8 percent of the population is employed and this number has remained very stagnant, even across different demographics.  I would expect it to remain that way unless some drastic policy change intervenes such as the raising of minimum wage to $10.10. The labor force participation rate has increased in March (The Employment Situation, 2014). It increased by .2 percent which equates to nearly 503 person increase in the last month. Despite the increase, this is troubling. The economic condition is giving little motivation for the unemployed to seek employment in the work force. If there was, this number would jump as job prospects increased. Much like the employment-population ratio, if there is no government policy change, the labor force participation rate will remain steady in the upcoming months.

               

Sources:

Mankiw, G. (2011). Principles of Macroeconomics (6 ed.). Andover : South-Western College Pub.

"Employment-Population Ratio."AmosWEB is Economics: Encyclonomic WEB*pedia. N.p., n.d. Web. 18 Apr. 2014. <http://www.amosweb.com/cgi-bin/awb_nav.pl?s=wpd&c=dsp&k=employment-population+ratio>.

The Employment Situation – March 2014. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Retrieved from: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Simone Assaley

Kassens

Macroeconomics

April 18, 2014

Unemployment

            Unemployment is a concept that has been widely misunderstood by the population.  When someone is considered unemployed, they have not been searching for work for over four weeks.  Anyone who is not in search of a job is not considered to be in the labor force, and will not be counted in the labor force participation rate.  Employed people are counted in the employment population ratio.  These three different uses of counting people in the work force all offer different perspectives in analyzing the current state of employment.

            The unemployment rate in March 2014 was 6.7 percent, which is what the rate has been steady at for several months now.  The number of people who are currently unemployed is 10.5 million.  Each one of these people now is actively seeking work.  The employment population ratio is 58.9 percent, and the percentage of people in the labor force is 63.2.  According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the total employment has increased in the month of March, while the unemployment rate has stayed around the same percentage.  This means that people are entering the labor force already employed. 

            For the rest of 2014, I suspect that the unemployment rate will stay about the same until the fall when it will rise.  I figure that during the summer people will keep on entering the labor force already employed, making the employment participation ration rise.  Then at the end of the summer when people start to lose their summer jobs, they will be considered unemployed, and still in the labor force.  After a while, the people will leave the labor force and no longer be considered unemployed, which will make the unemployment rate fall.  Since the economy has been on the rise since the recession, I think the unemployment rate will stay at a steady 6 to 8 percent.

            The unemployment rate is steady right now.  There are a good number of people who are actively seeking work.  On the bright side, there has also been an increase in the employment right.  This means that more people are entering the work force and becoming employed.  If more people are entering the work force, then the unemployment rate will be a better indicator of the current state of the country’s employment. Since the economy is now becoming more steady, the employment and unemployment rates will follow.

References

Mankiw, Gregory. (2012). Principles of Macroeconomics: Sixth Edition.  Mason, OH. South-

            Western Cengage Learning.

The Employment Situation-Jeremy Peavey

Jeremy Peavey

18 April 2014

Econ 122 Blog Post 2

Dr. Kassens

The Employment Situation

            In the March Employment Situation Report, the unemployment rate remained at 6.7% which has seen minimal movement since December 2013.  Despite unemployment rate remaining constant, the private sector has added 8.9 million jobs over 49 straight months.  In March, nonfarm payroll employment rose by 192,000 in March as a result of increased private employment.  Seasonally adjusted payroll employment, has been positive since the first quarter of January 2010.  Over the past 12 months, private employment has risen by 2.3 million.  At an increase of 189,000 jobs per month over the past twelve-month period, this is slightly higher than the 175,000 jobs created per month during the previous twelve-month period.  It is expected that this trend will continue or level-off in the next twelve-month period.  The majority of private sector jobs created were seen in professional and business services, in healthcare, and in mining and logging.  In March, 57,000 professional and business services jobs, 19,000 healthcare jobs, and over 7,000 mining and logging jobs were added.  Trends in other employment areas with increasing jobs tended to continue with steady increases in the month of March. 

            Across different groups, there remains to be highest levels of unemployment for those 16 to 17 years old (20.9%), 18 to 19 years old (20.7%), and Black or African American (12.4%).  As one would expect, teens have the highest unemployment rates and also the lowest labor force participation rates.  Racial disparities are quite striking here.  The proportion of Blacks in the labor force is significantly less than those of whites.  This could be caused by lower amounts of black teens being able to obtain employment.  While white teens are in the labor force, they are gaining skills and experience that will help them later as adult job market participants.  Inability to obtain a job in a Black’s teen years could be harming their employment chances for the future.  This factor could be in direct correlation with the high unemployment rate seen for the entire Black race.

            The employment-population ratio (58.9%) and the labor force participation rate (63.2%) both changed very little through March. Since March of 2013, the employment-population ratio increased only 0.04%.  This statistic has remained relatively the same over the past year because slight increases in the population have been balanced by slight increase in the number of individuals employed.  Over the past year, the U.S. civilian noninstitutional population increased from 244,995 to 247,258 (in thousands), and employment went from 143,393 to 145,742.  As a constituent of the employment population, labor force participation rate remained stable also.  Increases in population size were balanced by increases in the labor force. 

            For the rest of 2014, I expect that the labor force trends seen in March will continue to increase as we continue to recover from the recession.  The cyclic nature of employment trends leads me to believe that within the near future, we may start to see leveling-off of these trends and possible returns to previous ratios.  As seen this month, unemployment rate remained the same after steady decreases since the end of the recession.  It would not be surprising if the unemployment rate remained at the current level for some time before going back up.

           

References

The Employment Situation – March 2014. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Retrieved from: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Mankiw, Gregory. (2012). Principles of Macroeconomics: Sixth Edition. Mason, OH: South-Western Cengage Learning. 

The Employment Situation

Madeline Conway

April 18, 2014

Econ 122 Blog Post 2

Dr. Kassens

The unemployment rate is a measure of the prevalence of unemployment and it is calculated as a percentage by dividing the number of unemployed individuals by all individuals currently in the labor force (Mankiw, 2012, p. 299). The Employment Population Ratio' is a macroeconomic statistic that takes the ratio of the total working age of the labor force currently employed to the total working age population of a region, municipality or country (Mankiw, 2012, p. 300).

And finally the labor force participation rate is defined as the percentage of working age people who are between 16-65 years old, either working or searching for work (Mankiw, 2012, p. 299). Before we can understand and differentiate between the two surveys of household data and establishment data we must know who is included in these surveys.

Within the household data this survey includes civilian uninstitutional, agricultural, self-employed, unpaid family workers, private household workers, and those who are 16 years of age and older. Within the establishment data this survey includes employees on nonfarm payrolls, hours and earnings, production and nonsupervisory employees which is defined as production and employees in manufacturing and mining and logging, construction workers in construction and non-supervisory employees in private service-providing industries. 

When looking at the household data, In March, the number of unemployment was unchanged at 10.5 million, and the unemployment rate is currently 6.7 percent. Both have shown little movement since December 2013. Over the year, the number of unemployed and the unemployment rate were down by 1.2 million and 0.8 percentage point, which is an estimate. The unemployment rate for adult women increased to 6.2 percent in March, and the rate for adult men decreased to 6.2 percent. The rates for teenagers (20.9 percent), whites (5.8 percent), blacks (12.4 percent), and Hispanics (7.9 percent) showed little or no change. The jobless rate for Asians was 5.4 percent (not seasonally adjusted), little changed from a year earlier (“The Employment Situation,” 2014). Going on to the employment-population ratio (58.9 percent) changed little over the month of March. Along with the employment population ratio the labor force population rate was at 63.2 percent, an increase for March. 

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons was little changed at 7.4 million in March. These individuals work part time because their hours have been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job (“The Employment Situation,” 2014).

In March, 2.2 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, little changed from a year earlier. Which were not seasonally adjusted, Discouraged workers are not currently looking for work because they think no jobs are available to them. (“The Employment Situation,” 2014). When we analyze the establishment data survey the employment in other industries, include manufacturing, wholesale trade, retail trade, transportation and warehousing, information, and financial activities, which showed us little change over the month.

In March, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged down by 1 cent to $24.30, following a 9-cent increase in February. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for January was revised from +129,000 to +144,000, and the change for February was revised from +175,000 to +197,000. With these revisions, employment gains in January and February were 37,000 higher than previously reported (“The Employment Situation,” 2014).

In 2014 we hope unemployment will continue to decrease, we also hope that more people of different demographics will join the workforce. We also hope that some of the subgroups like African American teenagers unemployment will improve. At this point in 2014 we can only estimate and wait and see how the rest of the year plays out.  

Works Cited

The Employment Situation – March 2014. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Retrieved from: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Mankiw, Gregory. (2012). Principles of Macroeconomics: Sixth Edition. Mason, OH: South-Western Cengage Learning. 

Tyler Rostad
Blog #2
Unemployment Trends


         During this past march, the Employment Situation Summary gave an in depth look at to what has been happening with unemployment numbers over the course of the past year.  The Employment Situation Summary came out April 4th, 2014.
         The unemployment rate remained mostly unchanged at 6.7 percent.  The 10.5 million people that make up that 6.7 percent continued their usual trends of past years.  The unemployment rate for adult woman increased by 6.2 percent while the men's rate decreased to 6.2 percent.  These two changes in male and female unemployment rates has left them with the same number.  Although the female's rate increased by a small percentage, both the men's and women's rate have fallen significant amounts since past years.  As for ethnicities, the numbers remained the same for blacks, whites, hispanics, and asians at 12.4, 5.8, 7.9,  and 5.4 respectively.  The black population remains at the top of the unemployment rate according to gender.  These rates all remained relatively unchanged, showing that there is still inequality within the economy and there is little change regarding it.  Almost 36 percent of the unemployed have been for longer than 27 weeks.  These 3.7 million people make up the long term unemployed population.  This number dropped significantly from the past year.  There was a decrease in the amount of long term unemployed by 837,000 people showing that there has been better initiative from people who have been unemployed for a long period of time.  It also shows that there has been an increased availability for jobs.  In the short term there has been an increase in productivity.  
         According to the Employment Situation Summary, the labor force participation rate was 63.2 percent.  This rate increased by a small amount throughout the month of march.  The employment population ratio was 58.9 percent.  This also increased by a small amount during the month of march.  Little changed in the number or marginally attached workers to the labor force.  The number of discouraged workers was 698,000, while the number of workers who could not work due to school or family reasons was around 1.5 million.  Both of these numbers were down compared to one year earlier in 2013.  The number of marginally attached workers is trending down from the past year to now which is a very good thing.  Less people are becoming frustrated and stoping looking for work, making the number of discouraged workers shrink.  Less discouraged workers means more in the labor force, which only helps the economy and themselves.
         Job growth over the past twelve months has shown more positive trends.  There has been on average, 183,000 new jobs created per month over the past year.  Another important upward trend in the economy is the number of people employed in the construction field.  Construction employment rose by 151,000 the past year and has continued it's upward trend in march with 19,000 new jobs created.  More construction jobs are happening thus requiring more workers and resources for these new projects.
         Overall, the job market, and economy as a whole seem to be trending upwards and show signs of future growth as well.  People are becoming less discouraged with the new availability of more jobs in all areas, and future jobs are being created through the building and expansion of our societies across the nation.  If these rates continue to rise, economic prosperity will follow.  

References 

Employment Situation Summary. (2014, October 19). U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Retrieved April 16, 2014, from http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.

United States (US) unemployment rate 2014. (n.d.). countryeconomy.com. Retrieved April 18, 2014,                                        from http://countryeconomy.com/unemployment/.

March un-employment report Jon Paige

Jon Paige

Dr. Kassens

With the most recent economic recession the unemployment rate rose especially with the crash of the housing market. With the crash of the housing market there was a significant loss in jobs that contributed to the unemployment rate. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases a report every month keeping track of the unemployment rate in the U.S. The BLS surveys 60,000 household and they categorize three groups that add to the unemployment rate. The three groups that are used to categorize the 60,000 households are the labor force, unemployed, and the employed. These three groups are what the BLS uses to figure out what the rate of unemployment is.

The summary of the situation report released by the BLS the rate of unemployment stayed the same at 6.7% from December 2013 to April 2014. With the consistency with the unemployment there was growth in employment. For example after the housing market coming to a complete crash leaving many people in the construction business out of jobs. In the month of March the trend was an increase of 19,000 and the past year the employment increased by 151,000. With the constancy with the unemployment rate this shows that the population are finding jobs slowly but surely. There has been a slow decrease in the unemployment rate from October 2009 with it being highest of 10% and in April 4^th the percent being at 6.7. Also another slow decrease is the unemployment rate with the many different races living within the United States. This shows that the unemployment rate decrease is happening al across the board with everyone. This means more people are finding jobs and the employment rate is increasing while the unemployment rate is decreasing.

The labor force participation ratio had only a .1% decrease from the previous year in the month of March. With being such a small amount of change with this statistical value there is no reason to have any concern with the ratio with the unemployment rate. Regardless of the change in the unemployment rate over the span of a year the labor force ratio remain almost the same. There doesn’t seem to be a correlation between the rates of unemployment to the ratio of the labor force.

The employment rate is slowly decreasing which is a good sign. This means the recovery of our economy and allowing the skilled workers back into the work force. From what the statistics show there will be a decrease in the unemployment rate and increase in employment and participation rate as well. This will help bring more money within our economy.

Major Labor Market Statistics & Trends

Laura Kielek

Dr. Kassens

Econ 122

18 April 2014

            The March Employment Situation Report discusses important labor market statistics, which includes the unemployment rate, employment population ratio, and labor force participation rate (“The Employment Situation,” 2014). The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) measures unemployment, and every month the BLS provides data to the public on unemployment and on other aspects of the labor market, as well (Mankiw, 2012, p. 298).

            The collection of data from this survey is distributed, and the BLS organizes the information into three separate categories. One category is Employed, which “includes those who worked as paid employees, worked in their own business, or worked as unpaid workers in a family member’s business” (Mankiw, 2012, p. 298). Another category is Unemployed, which “includes those who were not employed, were available for work, and had tried to find employment during the previous four weeks” (Mankiw, 2012, p. 299). The third category is Not in the labor force, which “includes those who fit neither of the first two categories, such as a full-time student, homemaker, or retiree” (Mankiw, 2012, p. 299). These categories are essential for the BLS to compute statistics that will portray the status of the labor market.

The unemployment rate is calculated as the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed (Mankiw, 2012, p. 299). It was unchanged at 6.7% in March of 2014. When comparing March of 2013 to March of 2014, the rate went from 7.5 to 6.7 (“The Employment Situation,” 2014). The change of this rate could be because of many reasons, for example, someone who is unemployed may become discouraged and stop searching for a job. The unemployment rate would decrease, and it would seem as if the labor market is improving, but it is not.

The employment population ratio is calculated as the ratio of the total labor force currently employed to the total population of a region, municipality, or country (“Employment-to-Population Ratio,” 2014). This is 58.9% in the month of March 2014. This ratio has hardly changed when looking at the ratio from March of 2013. It adjusted from 58.5 to 58.9 (“The Employment Situation,” 2014).

The labor force participation rate is calculated as the percentage of the adult population that is in the labor force (Mankiw, 2012, p. 299). It is 63.2% in the month of March. This number seems to stay fairly constant from month to month, as well. Comparing March of 2013 and March of 2014, the labor force participation rate changed from 63.3% to 63.2% (“The Employment Situation,” 2014).

            The changes that occur from month to month are trends that are likely to continue over the years. A reason that a drastic change may occur would be a major cut of employees’ worldwide. Across groups, there a slight differences in unemployment rates in March of 2014, but also large differences. When comparing adults who are 16 years and older, between adult men and adult women there is a difference of 0.5, with men having a larger unemployment rate. Teenagers have the greatest difference of all, having a 20.9 unemployment rate. When comparing ethnicities (white, black or African American, Asian, and Hispanic or Latino), white and Asian have the most similar unemployment rates with white having 5.8 and Asian having 5.4. Hispanic or Latino has a 7.9, and black or African American have the largest rate of 12.4 (“The Employment Situation,” 2014). These differences across groups should not exist, but the differences have grown smaller over the years. Changes in these groups will only continue over years. As for the rest of 2014, I anticipate that the unemployment rate will not change excessively, and it will remain around 6.7%. The employment population ratio and the labor force participation rate will not change too much, as well. These numbers have all continued to stay rather constant from January to March, so I believe this trend will continue.

References:

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2014). The employment situation – March 2014.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

(2014). Employment-to-population ratio. Investopedia US, A Division of IAC.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/employment_to_population_ratio.asp

Mankiw, N.G. (2012). Principles of macroeconomics (6^th ed.). Mason, OH: South-Western Cengage   Learning.